Suicide Following the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Variation Across Place, Over Time, and Across Sociodemographic Groups. A Systematic Integrative Review.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To systematically examine changes in suicide trends following the initial COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on geographical and temporal heterogeneity and on differences across sociodemographic subgroups. RECENT FINDINGS: Of 46 studies, 26 had low risk of bias. In general, suicides remained stable or decreased following the initial outbreak - however, suicide increases were detected during spring 2020 in Mexico, Nepal, India, Spain, and Hungary; and after summer 2020 in Japan. Trends were heterogeneous across sociodemographic groups (i.e., there were increases among racially minoritized individuals in the US, young adults and females across ages in Japan, older males in Brazil and Germany, and older adults across sex in China and Taiwan). Variations may be explained by differences in risk of COVID-19 contagion and death and in socioeconomic vulnerability. Monitoring geographical, temporal, and sociodemographic differences in suicide trends during the COVID-19 pandemic is critical to guide suicide prevention efforts.

Invited Commentary: Modern Epidemiology Confronts COVID-19-Reflections From Psychiatric Epidemiology.

Dimitris et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(6):980-986) outline how the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has, with mixed results, put epidemiology under the spotlight. While epidemiologic theory and methods have been critical in many successes, the ongoing global death toll from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the sometimes chaotic public messaging underscore that epidemiology as a field has room for improvement. Here, we use examples from psychiatric epidemiologic studies conducted during the COVID-19 era to reflect on errors driven by overlooking specific major methodological advances of modern epidemiology. We focus on: 1) use of nonrepresentative sampling in online surveys, which limits the potential knowledge to be gained from descriptive studies and amplifies collider stratification bias in causal studies; and 2) failure to acknowledge multiple versions of exposures (e.g., lockdown, school closure) and differences in prevalence of effect measure modifiers across contexts, which causes violations of the consistency assumption and lack of effect transportability. We finish by highlighting: 1) the heterogeneity of psychiatric epidemiologic results during the pandemic across place and sociodemographic groups and over time; 2) the importance of following the foundational advancements of modern epidemiology even in emergency settings; and 3) the need to limit the role of political agendas in cherry-picking and reporting epidemiologic evidence.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide mortality in Spain: Differences by sex and age.

BACKGROUND: Variations in suicide following the initial COVID-19 pandemic outbreak were heterogeneous across space, over time, and across population subgroup. Whether suicide has increased during the pandemic in Spain, a major initial COVID-19 hotspot, remains unclear, and no study has examined differences by sociodemographic group. METHODS: We used 2016-2020 data on monthly suicide deaths from Spain's National Institute of Statistics. We implemented Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to control seasonality, non-stationarity, and autocorrelation. Using January 2016-March 2020 data, we predicted monthly suicide counts (95 % prediction intervals) between April and December 2020, and then compared observed and predicted monthly suicide counts. All calculations were conducted for the overall study population and by sex and age group. RESULTS: Between April and December 2020, the number of suicides in Spain was 11 % higher-than-predicted. Monthly suicide counts were lower-than-expected in April 2020 and peaked in August 2020 with 396 observed suicides. Excess suicide counts were particularly salient during the summer of 2020 - largely driven by over 50 % higher-than-expected suicide counts among males aged 65 years and older in June, July, and August 2020. DISCUSSION: The number of suicides increased in Spain during the months following the initial COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Spain, largely driven by increases in suicides among older adults. Potential explanations underlying this phenomenon remain elusive. Important factors to understand these findings may include fear of contagion, isolation, and loss and bereavement - in the context of the particularly high mortality rates of older adults during the initial phases of the pandemic in Spain.

Sustained Negative Mental Health Outcomes Among Healthcare Workers Over the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Objective: To characterize the evolution of healthcare workers' mental health status over the 1-year period following the initial COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and to examine baseline characteristics associated with resolution or persistence of mental health problems over time. Methods: We conducted an 8-month follow-up cohort study. Eligible participants were healthcare workers working in Spain. Baseline data were collected during the initial pandemic outbreak. Survey-based self-reported measures included COVID-19-related exposures, sociodemographic characteristics, and three mental health outcomes (psychological distress, depression symptoms, and posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms). We examined three longitudinal trajectories in mental health outcomes between baseline and follow-up assessments (namely asymptomatic/stable, recovering, and persistently symptomatic/worsening). Results: We recruited 1,807 participants. Between baseline and follow-up assessments, the proportion of respondents screening positive for psychological distress and probable depression decreased, respectively, from 74% to 56% and from 28% to 21%. Two-thirds remained asymptomatic/stable in terms of depression symptoms and 56% remained symptomatic or worsened over time in terms of psychological distress. Conclusion: Poor mental health outcomes among healthcare workers persisted over time. Occupational programs and mental health strategies should be put in place.

OnTrack Chile for people with early psychosis: a study protocol for a Hybrid Type 1 trial.

BACKGROUND: Substantial data from high-income countries support early interventions in the form of evidence-based Coordinated Specialty Care (CSC) for people experiencing First Episode Psychosis (FEP) to ameliorate symptoms and minimize disability. Chile is unique among Latin American countries in providing universal access to FEP services through a national FEP policy that mandates the identification of FEP individuals in primary care and guarantees delivery of community-based FEP treatments within a public health care system. Nonetheless, previous research has documented that FEP services currently provided at mental health clinics do not provide evidence-based approaches. This proposal aims to address this shortfall by first adapting OnTrackNY (OTNY), a CSC program currently being implemented across the USA, into OnTrackChile (OTCH), and then examine its effectiveness and implementation in Chile. METHODS: The Dynamic Adaptation Process will be used first to inform the adaptation and implementation of OTCH to the Chilean context. Then, a Hybrid Type 1 trial design will test its effectiveness and cost and evaluate its implementation using a cluster-randomized controlled trial (RCT) (N = 300 from 21 outpatient clinics). The OTCH program will be offered in half of these outpatient clinics to individuals ages 15-35. Usual care services will continue to be offered at the other clinics. Given the current COVID-19 pandemic, most research and intervention procedures will be conducted remotely. The study will engage participants over the course of 2 years, with assessments administered at enrollment, 12 months, and 24 months. Primary outcomes include implementation (fidelity, acceptability, and uptake) and service outcomes (person-centeredness, adherence, and retention). Secondary outcomes comprise participant-level outcomes such as symptoms, functioning, and recovery orientation. Over the course of the study, interviews and focus groups with stakeholders will be conducted to better understand the implementation of OTCH. DISCUSSION: Findings from this study will help determine the feasibility, effectiveness, and cost for delivering CSC services in Chile. Lessons learned about facilitators and barriers related to the implementation of the model could help inform the approach needed for these services to be further expanded throughout Latin America. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov NCT04247711 . Registered 30 January 2020. TRIAL STATUS: The OTCH trial is currently recruiting participants. Recruitment started on March 1, 2021, and is expected to be completed by December 1, 2022. This is the first version of this protocol (5/12/2021).

Thromboprophylaxis with standard-dose vs. flexible-dose heparin for hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a target trial emulation.

OBJECTIVES: To compare mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients under two low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH) thromboprophylaxis strategies: standard dose and variable dose (standard dose increased to intermediate dose in the presence of laboratory abnormalities indicating an increased thrombosis risk). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Target trial emulation using observational data from 2,613 adults admitted with a COVID-19 diagnosis in Madrid, Spain between March 16 and April 15, 2020. RESULTS: A total of 1,284 patients were eligible. Among 503 patients without increased baseline thrombotic risk, 28-day mortality risk (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 9.0% (6.6, 11.7) under the standard dose strategy and 5.6% (3.3, 8.3) under the variable dose strategy; risk difference 3.4% (95% CI: -0.24, 6.9); mortality hazard ratio 1.61 (95% CI: 0.97, 2.89). Among 781 patients with increased baseline thrombotic risk, the 28-day mortality risk was 25.8% (22.7, 29.0) under the standard dose strategy and 18.1% (9.3, 28.9) under the intermediate dose strategy; risk difference 7.7% (95% CI: -3.5, 17.2); mortality hazard ratio 1.45 (95% CI: 0.81, 3.17). Major bleeding and LMWH-induced coagulopathy were rare under all strategies. CONCLUSION: Escalating anticoagulation intensity after signs of thrombosis risk may increase the survival of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. However, effect estimates were imprecise and additional studies are warranted.

Pediatric Mental Health Emergency Visits During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Introduction: Paediatric and adult psychiatric emergency department (ED) visits decreased during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. Long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic will include increases in mental healthcare needs, especially among vulnerable groups such as children and adolescents. Aim: This study examined changes in the number of overall and diagnosis-specific mental health ED visits among patients aged <18 years following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Madrid, Spain. Methods: Using clinical records from all psychiatric ED visits at a major teaching hospital between October 2018 and April 2021, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses and compared trends before and after the day of the first ED COVID-19 case (1st March 2020). Results: A total of 663 patients were included. In March 2020, there was a marked initial decrease of -12.8 (95% CI -21.9, - 7.9) less monthly mental health ED visits. After April 2020, there was a subsequent increasing trend of 3.4 (95% CI 2.6, 4.2) additional monthly mental health ED visits. Conclusion: After the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an increase in paediatric psychiatric ED visits, especially due to suicide-related reasons. These data reinforce the crucial role of the ED in the management of acute mental health problems among youth and highlight the need for renovated efforts to enhance access to care outside of and during acute crises during the pandemic and its aftermath.

COVID-19 Pandemic Factors and Depressive Symptoms Among Primary Care Workers in São Paulo, Brazil, October and November 2020.

Objectives. To investigate associations between COVID-19-related factors and depressive symptoms among primary care workers (PCWs) in São Paulo, Brazil, and to compare the prevalence of probable depression among PCWs before and during the pandemic. Methods. In a random sample of primary care clinics, we examined 6 pandemic-related factors among 828 PCWs. We used multivariate Poisson regression with robust variance to estimate prevalence ratios for probable depression. We assessed the prevalence of probable depression in PCWs before and during the pandemic in 2 comparable studies. Results. Adjusted prevalence ratios were substantial for insufficient personal protective equipment; experiences of discrimination, violence, or harassment; and lack of family support. Comparisons between PCWs before and during the pandemic showed that the prevalence of probable depression among physicians, nurses, and nursing assistants was higher during the pandemic and that the prevalence among community health workers was higher before the pandemic. Conclusions. Our findings indicate domains that may be crucial to mitigating depression among PCWs but that, with the exception of personal protective equipment, have not previously been examined in this population. It is crucial that governments and communities address discriminatory behaviors against PCWs, promote their well-being at work, and foster family support. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(5):786-794. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306723).

Global mental health research and practice: a decolonial approach.

The global health movement is having a paradigm crisis-a period characterised by a questioning of one's values, goals, and sense of identity. Despite important advances in population health worldwide, global health and global mental health often produce and reproduce power imbalances and patterns of oppression and exploitation that perpetuate the current modern world system (ie, Eurocentric, capitalist, and patriarchal) and its entangled global hierarchies (eg, gender, economic, epistemic, and linguistic). A consensus is emerging to decolonise global mental health, but it is not clear how to move from rhetoric to action. In this Personal View, we aim to share our experiences and the practices developed in the context of the COVID-19 health care workers (HEROES) Study. To do so, we present our HEROES decolonial team approach, which comprises three underlying principles: epistemic justice, pragmatic solidarity, and sovereign acts. We have developed decolonial team practices such as co-creating communication spaces to foster horizontal and equitable dialogue, locating and managing the study database in Chile, and ensuring local teams' rights and access to the data without barriers.

Role of medical comorbidity in the association between psychiatric disorders and mortality among patients with COVID-19.

We examined whether excess chronic medical comorbidity mediated excess COVID-19 inpatient mortality among people with mental disorders in the early phase of the pandemic, a question with important implications for public health and clinical decision-making. Using records of 2599 COVID-19 hospitalized patients, we conducted a formal causal mediation analysis to estimate the extent to which chronic comorbidity mediates the association between mental disorders and COVID-19 mortality. The Odds Ratio (95% CI) for Natural Indirect Effect and Controlled Direct Effect were 1.07(1.02, 1.14) and 1.40 (1.00, 1.95), respectively, suggesting that a large proportion of excess COVID-19 mortality among people with mental disorders may be explained by factors other than comorbidity.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of healthcare workers: study protocol for the COVID-19 HEalth caRe wOrkErS (HEROES) study.

BACKGROUND: Preliminary country-specific reports suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact on the mental health of the healthcare workforce. In this paper, we summarize the protocol of the COVID-19 HEalth caRe wOrkErS (HEROES) study, an ongoing, global initiative, aimed to describe and track longitudinal trajectories of mental health symptoms and disorders among health care workers at different phases of the pandemic across a wide range of countries in Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle-East, and Asia. METHODS: Participants from various settings, including primary care clinics, hospitals, nursing homes, and mental health facilities, are being enrolled. In 26 countries, we are using a similar study design with harmonized measures to capture data on COVID-19 related exposures and variables of interest during two years of follow-up. Exposures include potential stressors related to working in healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as sociodemographic and clinical factors. Primary outcomes of interest include mental health variables such as psychological distress, depressive symptoms, and posttraumatic stress disorders. Other domains of interest include potentially mediating or moderating influences such as workplace conditions, trust in the government, and the country's income level. RESULTS: As of August 2021, ~ 34,000 health workers have been recruited. A general characterization of the recruited samples by sociodemographic and workplace variables is presented. Most participating countries have identified several health facilities where they can identify denominators and attain acceptable response rates. Of the 26 countries, 22 are collecting data and 2 plan to start shortly. CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the most extensive global studies on the mental health of healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, including a variety of countries with diverse economic realities and different levels of severity of pandemic and management. Moreover, unlike most previous studies, we included workers (clinical and non-clinical staff) in a wide range of settings.

Associations between COVID-19 mobility restrictions and economic, mental health, and suicide-related concerns in the US using cellular phone GPS and Google search volume data.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, US populations have experienced elevated rates of financial and psychological distress that could lead to increases in suicide rates. Rapid ongoing mental health monitoring is critical for early intervention, especially in regions most affected by the pandemic, yet traditional surveillance data are available only after long lags. Novel information on real-time population isolation and concerns stemming from the pandemic's social and economic impacts, via cellular mobility tracking and online search data, are potentially important interim surveillance resources. Using these measures, we employed transfer function model time-series analyses to estimate associations between daily mobility indicators (proportion of cellular devices completely at home and time spent at home) and Google Health Trends search volumes for terms pertaining to economic stress, mental health, and suicide during 2020 and 2021 both nationally and in New York City. During the first pandemic wave in early-spring 2020, over 50% of devices remained completely at home and searches for economic stressors exceeded 60,000 per 10 million. We found large concurrent associations across analyses between declining mobility and increasing searches for economic stressor terms (national proportion of devices at home: cross-correlation coefficient (CC) = 0.6 (p-value <0.001)). Nationally, we also found strong associations between declining mobility and increasing mental health and suicide-related searches (time at home: mood/anxiety CC = 0.53 (<0.001), social stressor CC = 0.51 (<0.001), suicide seeking CC = 0.37 (0.006)). Our findings suggest that pandemic-related isolation coincided with acute economic distress and may be a risk factor for poor mental health and suicidal behavior. These emergent relationships warrant ongoing attention and causal assessment given the potential for long-term psychological impact and suicide death. As US populations continue to face stress, Google search data can be used to identify possible warning signs from real-time changes in distributions of population thought patterns.

The role of social support and resilience in the mental health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic among healthcare workers in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers (HCWs) from COVID-19 pandemic hotspots across the globe have reported mental health problems, including anxiety, depression, or sleep problems. Many studies have focused on identifying modifiable risk factors, such as being afraid of getting infected or reporting shortage of personal protective equipment, but none have explored the role of protective factors. METHOD: This cross-sectional study used an online survey to describe the association between three potentially protective factors (self-reported resilience, self-perceived social support from colleagues at work, and self-perceived social support from relatives and friends) and three mental health outcomes, namely psychological distress, depression symptoms, and death thoughts in a large sample of Spanish HCWs during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: We recruited 2372 respondents between April 26th and June 22nd, 2020. Resilience and self-perceived social support were inversely associated with mental health problems (psychological distress, depression symptoms, and death thoughts), after adjusting for potential sources of confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Resilience and self-perceived social support might protect HCWs against negative mental health outcomes. Public health strategies targeting these modifiable determinants might help to reduce the impact of the pandemic on HCWs' mental health.

Prospective Analysis Between Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio on Admission and Development of Delirium Among Older Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

Objective: To examine any prospective association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) at hospital admission and subsequent delirium in older COVID-19 hospitalized patients comparing by sex and age groups. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,785 COVID-19 adult inpatients (minimum sample size required of 635 participants) admitted to a public general hospital in Madrid (Spain) between March 16th and April 15th, 2020. Variables were obtained from electronic health records. Binary logistic regression models were performed between baseline NLR and delirium adjusting for age, sex, medical comorbidity, current illness severity, serious mental illness history and use of chloroquine and dexamethasone. An NLR cut-off was identified, and stratified analyses were performed by age and sex. Also, another biomarker was tested as an exposure (the systemic immune-inflammation index -SII). Results: 55.3% of the patients were men, with a mean age of 66.8 years. Roughly 13% of the patients had delirium during hospitalization. NLR on admission predicted subsequent delirium development (adjusted OR = 1.02, 95 percent CI: 1.00-1.04, p = 0.024). Patients between 69 and 80 years with NLR values > 6.3 presented a twofold increased risk for delirium (p = 0.004). There were no sex differences in the association between baseline NLR and delirium (p > 0.05) nor SII predicted delirium development (p = 0.341). Conclusion: NLR is a good predictor of delirium during hospitalization, especially among older adults, independently of medical comorbidity, illness severity, and other covariates. Routine blood tests on admission might provide valuable information to guide the decision-making process to be followed with these especially vulnerable patients.

Role of access to personal protective equipment, treatment prioritization decisions, and changes in job functions on health workers' mental health outcomes during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During the initial COVID-19 outbreak, organizational changes were required to ensure adequate staffing in healthcare facilities. The extent to which organizational changes impacted the mental wellbeing of healthcare workers (HCWs) remains unexplored. Here we analyzed the association between three work-related stressors (reported access to protective equipment, change in job functions, and patient prioritization decision-making) and mental health outcomes (depression symptoms, psychological distress, suicidal thoughts, and fear of infection) in a large sample of Spanish HCWs during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study including HCWs from three regions of Spain between April 24th and June 22nd, 2020. An online survey measured sociodemographic characteristics, work-related stressors, fear of infection, and mental health outcomes (depression [PHQ-9], psychological distress [GHQ-12], death wishes [C-SSRS]). We conducted mixed-effects regression models to adjust all associations for relevant individual- and region-level sources of confounding. RESULTS: We recruited 2,370 HCWs. Twenty-seven percent screened positive for depression and 74% for psychological distress. Seven percent reported death wishes. Respondents were more afraid of infecting their loved ones than of getting infected themselves. All work-related stressors were associated with depression symptoms and psychological distress in adjusted models. LIMITATIONS: Non-probabilistic sampling, potential reverse causation. CONCLUSIONS: Modifiable work-related stressors are associated with worse mental health among HCWs. Our results suggest that workplace prevention strategies for HCWs should provide sufficient protective equipment, minimize changes in job functions, favor the implementation of criteria for patient triage and on-call bioethics committees, and facilitate access to stepped-care, evidence-based mental health treatment.

Association between perceived discrimination and mental health outcomes among health workers during the initial COVID-19 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: During the initial COVID-19 outbreak, health systems faced unprecedented organizational stress. Meanwhile, reports of episodes of discrimination and violence towards healthcare workers increased globally. This study explores the association between perceived discrimination and mental health outcomes in a large sample of healthcare workers in Spain. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Healthcare workers from inpatient and outpatient facilities (N=2,053) filled an on-line questionnaire in May or June 2020. Mental health outcomes included depression symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ-9]), psychological distress (General Health Questionnaire [GHQ-12]) and death thoughts (Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale [C-SSRS]). We also measured perceived discrimination and/or stigmatization due to being a healthcare worker since pandemic onset. Regression models adjusted for potential confounding sources (age, sex, history of a mental health diagnosis and type of job) were fitted. RESULTS: Thirty percent of the respondents reported discrimination and/or stigmatization. Perceived discrimination was associated with higher depression (B=2.4, 95 percent CI: 1.8, 2.9) and psychological distress (B=1.1, 95 percent CI: 0.7, 1.4) scores, and with a 2-fold increase in risk of reporting death thoughts (OR=2.0, 95 percent CI: 1.4, 3.1). CONCLUSIONS: Perceived discrimination is a modifiable driver of mental health problems among healthcare workers. Mass media, legislators, and healthcare institutions must put in place prevention and restoration strategies to limit discrimination towards healthcare workers and reduce its mental health impact.

New Approach to Managing the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Complex Tertiary Care Medical Center in Madrid, Spain.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is putting health-care systems under unprecedented stress to accommodate unexpected numbers of patients forcing a quick re-organization. This article describes the staff management experience of a third level referral hospital in the city of Madrid, Spain, one of the cities and hospitals with the largest number of COVID-19 cases.A newly created COVID-19-specific clinical management unit (CMU) coordinated all clinical departments and conducted real-time assessments of the availability and needs of medical staff, alongside the hospital's general management board. The CMU was able to (i) redeploy up to 285 physicians every week to bolster medical care in COVID-19 wards and forecast medical staff requirements for the upcoming week so all departments could organize their work while coping with COVID-19 needs, (ii) overview all clinical activities conducted in a medicalized hotel, and (iii) recruit a team of roughly 90 volunteer medical students to accelerate data collection and evidence generation.The main advantage of a CMU composed by a member of every job category-its ability to generate rapid, locally adapted responses to unexpected challenges-made it perfect for the unprecedented increase in health-care need generated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Critical Care Requirements Under Uncontrolled Transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Objectives. To estimate the critical care bed capacity that would be required to admit all critical COVID-19 cases in a setting of unchecked SARS-CoV-2 transmission, both with and without elderly-specific protection measures.Methods. Using electronic health records of all 2432 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a large hospital in Madrid, Spain, between February 28 and April 23, 2020, we estimated the number of critical care beds needed to admit all critical care patients. To mimic a hypothetical intervention that halves SARS-CoV-2 infections among the elderly, we randomly excluded 50% of patients aged 65 years and older.Results. Critical care requirements peaked at 49 beds per 100 000 on April 1-2 weeks after the start of a national lockdown. After randomly excluding 50% of elderly patients, the estimated peak was 39 beds per 100 000.Conclusions. Under unchecked SARS-CoV-2 transmission, peak critical care requirements in Madrid were at least fivefold higher than prepandemic capacity. Under a hypothetical intervention that halves infections among the elderly, critical care peak requirements would have exceeded the prepandemic capacity of most high-income countries.Public Health Implications. Pandemic control strategies that rely exclusively on protecting the elderly are likely to overwhelm health care systems.